The USDA's Economic Research Service publishes a monthly Food Price Outlook: forecast annual percent changes in consumer food prices, by category, with prediction intervals. It is the cleanest public read on where ingredient costs are heading, and this page tracks it for operators, updated as new releases land. The 2026 headline: all-food prices forecast up 3.1 percent, food at home up 2.7 percent, and food away from home, the line restaurants live on, up 3.5 percent.
Headlines are averages, and averages do not cook. The categories below are where menus win or lose money this year.
2026 forecast by category
| Category | USDA 2026 forecast | Prediction interval |
|---|---|---|
| Beef and veal | +10.7% | +7.2% to +14.6% |
| Sugar and sweets | +7.2% | +5.8% to +8.7% |
| Fresh vegetables | +6.8% | +4.3% to +9.5% |
| Nonalcoholic beverages | +3.9% | +2.7% to +5.3% |
| Fresh fruits | +2.0% | +0.2% to +3.9% |
| Pork | +1.6% | −0.9% to +4.0% |
| Poultry | +1.0% | −0.8% to +2.9% |
| Eggs | −30.7% | −36.5% to −23.4% |
Source: USDA Economic Research Service, Food Price Outlook, summary findings, July 24, 2026 release. Forecasts are annual average percent changes versus the prior year. USDA also expects dairy prices to grow more slowly than their historical average and fats and oils prices to decline; it does not publish point figures for those in this release.
What the beef number does to a menu
A double-digit beef forecast is a repricing event, not a note in a file. Work an example with sample numbers: a burger carrying $4.20 of beef in a $5.60 portion cost, selling at $14.95, runs a 37.5 percent food cost. Push the beef line up 10.7 percent and the portion climbs to about $6.05, and the same price now runs 40.5 percent. Either the price moves, the build changes, or the margin quietly leaves. The right response is item by item, with a method: how to price a menu covers the three that work, and the menu engineering matrix shows which beef items can carry a price move and which need a rework instead.
The egg dividend
Eggs forecast down 30.7 percent from 2025's elevated levels is the opposite kind of event: a margin gift to whoever notices first. Brunch programs, breakfast sandwiches, pasta programs and bakery lines all get cheaper to run this year. If your recipe costs still carry last year's egg prices, your menu is overpricing its own opportunity; recost those items and decide deliberately whether to bank the margin or press it into promotion. This is exactly the class of move that dies in spreadsheets, because nobody recosts twenty recipes for a falling ingredient. When invoices reprice recipes automatically, the falling line shows up as margin the same week.
Vegetables, sweets and the quiet lines
Fresh vegetables up 6.8 percent hits salads, sides and prep-heavy menus, where produce is also the biggest yield exposure on the plate; costing on usable yield matters more when the raw case costs more. Sugar and sweets up 7.2 percent lands on dessert menus and beverage syrups. Pork and poultry are forecast close to flat, which makes them the year's value proteins and a natural direction for specials and new items while beef is expensive.
The number that matters more than any forecast
National forecasts set the weather; your invoices are the actual rain. The USDA figure is an annual average across the whole country, and your vendor's chicken line can move against the national trend in any given month. The operators who protect margin do not manage to the forecast, they manage to their own price file: every invoice line checked against the last price paid, every change flowing into recipe costs and food cost percentage the day it happens. That is what Culvana's invoice reading automates, which makes this page's real advice simple: use the forecast to plan, use your own numbers to act, and make sure your own numbers are current. If food cost is already running hot, here is the order to fix it in.
Common questions
Are food prices going up in 2026?
Yes on average: USDA forecasts all food up 3.1 percent and food away from home up 3.5 percent. The average hides a 41-point spread between beef and eggs.
What is rising fastest?
Beef and veal at +10.7 percent, then sugar and sweets at +7.2 percent and fresh vegetables at +6.8 percent, per the July 2026 USDA release.
What should I do about it?
Recost affected recipes, reprice with a method, re-run the matrix, steer development toward flat or falling categories, and track your own invoices above all.
How often does this page update?
USDA updates the Food Price Outlook monthly; we refresh this page as releases land. The release date in use is always shown at the top.
Build your own price index from your invoices
Culvana reads every vendor invoice and shows you your real price trends per ingredient, per vendor, with recipes repriced automatically. Book a demo, or test a dish against today's prices in the recipe cost calculator.